The death of Elizabeth II could lead to a recession in the United Kingdom

The death of Elizabeth II could lead to a recession in the United Kingdom
The grieving process of the British could impact the entire British economy, which worries the experts.
YUICHI YAMAZAKI / AFP The grieving process of the British could impact the entire British economy, which worries the experts.

YUICHI YAMAZAKI / AFP

The grieving process of the British could impact the entire British economy, which worries the experts.

UK – ” The queen is dead, long live the recession “. An ominous adage, but which seems to be shared by several experts across the Channel. The funeral of Queen Elizabeth II organized on a public holiday after several days of national mourning could thus harm the British economy as a whole.

Fear of a recession driven by the consequences of the Queen’s death is beginning to creep in, as highlighted on Monday, September 12 the english newspaper The Times. According to several experts quoted by the newspaper, the sequence of ten days of national mourning, to which is added a holiday Monday, September 19 on the occasion of the funeral of the late queen could have serious economic consequences.

With businesses and schools closed that day, not to mention the postal services, the country will be in slow motion and the economic health of the country could well and truly take a hit, especially as the latest UK figures do not do not bode well for the future. The newspaper also notes that: a further drop in the third quarter would mean that the (UK) economy has met the criteria for a technical recession “.

A theory supported by Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec bank, who recalls that “un extra holiday tends to reduce GDP due to the large number of fewer workers that day. And if English economists were already expecting a recession, in a inflationary context and of energy crisis. They hadn’t anticipated it so soon.

Morale in the socks

However, this holiday established to respect the funeral of the sovereign to the 70 years of reign could only have a relative effect. Indeed, holding this day “off” for the British is not necessarily what worries the experts the most. On the other hand, this holiday, combined with the unpredictable behavior of million bereaved consumers causes much more fear.

The impact of the holiday itself may be relatively limited, notes Philip Shawwhat we don’t know is how the Queen’s death will affect the national mood and whether it leads to a drop in confidence and spending “.

Andrew Sentance, economist and former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee adds that this addition of factors could have “a fairly significant impact on economic activity in the short term”, a phenomenon already observed in the United Kingdom, during the death of princess dianaunderlines in this respect the expert.

Especially since the recent Platinum Jubilee of Elizabeth II had already been greedy for books. In addition, in June, an additional public holiday was decreed on this occasion. On the other hand, the drop in GDP expected and estimated in June 2022 due to the 70-year reign of Elizabeth II had been much smaller than expected (0.6% against 1.3% according to forecasts).

However, concern is much more present today, especially since many restaurants, bars and concert halls note a drastic increase in cancellations because of the gloomy atmosphere created in the country by the disappearance of the monarch.

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