Guess who’s coming for coffee?

Guess who's coming for coffee?

Apart from the surrounding decorum, which smells of dad’s finance, is a central banker ultimately different from an influencer? For the stock market, not really. Obviously, Jerome Powell’s tweets are less funny than those of Elon Musk, but each of his public outings is followed with devotion by the financial community, which finally wants to know whether to bet everything on grandpa Buffett’s strategy or whether , finally, it will again be possible to earn 50% in three months on any shaky company that sells technological stuff of dubious utility. So to summarize what happened yesterday and what will happen today: central bankers have taken power, until 3:10 p.m. Paris time, when they will be replaced by Jerome Powell, the father (bogeyman) of all central bankers.

Let’s start with yesterday’s session. US equities rebounded strongly after a series of depressing sessions, driven by the most cyclical compartments of the rating. Only oil stocks marked time, with the brief return of the barrel of American WTI light crude oil below the symbolic bar of 80 USD, a first since January. The Nasdaq 100 recovered more than 2% with only 5 declines for 95 increases recorded. In Europe, the markets had generally closed with slight gains or at least not far from equilibrium, except in London where the FTSE 100 fell by 0.9% due to its strong contingent of oil and mining stocks.

It was Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard who helped cement the rebound on Wall Street. In a speech delivered yesterday, she brought a touch of benevolence by warning the central bank against the risks associated with excessive monetary tightening. In recent weeks, members of the Fed had rather suggested that we should hit inflation as hard as possible and then think. That said, Brainard is in his role: he is one of the personalities sitting at the central bank considered to be the most flexible (one says “dove”, as opposed to the more orthodox “hawks”) vis-à-vis the Monetary Policy. It is therefore supposed to act as a counterweight in times of monetary tightening.

It will therefore be difficult to escape the central bankers today since the European Central Bank must give its monetary verdict at 2:15 p.m. Historically, the ECB communicated at 1:45 p.m. but a new schedule came into effect this summer. The presentation conference of the decision, always very popular because the financiers seek to better understand the intentions of the institution, will start at 2:45 p.m. There will be a small telescoping of the calendar since Christine Lagarde will probably speak again when her counterpart at the Fed, Jerome Powell, takes the microphone for a conference in the United States (3:10 p.m.). Will he be in tune with Lael Brainard or will he continue to play the buttocks? Reply in the afternoon. As for the ECB, it should tighten the screws vigorously to try to regain control of inflation. The forecasts are in favor of raising the main refinancing rate by three-quarters of a point, which would raise it from 0.50 to 1.25% and would constitute an unprecedented movement. To be precise, the forecast is between 0.50 and 0.75 points up, with a slight bias in favor of 0.75. All is not settled, but one thing is certain: the price of silver will continue to rise in the euro zone, at a time when the energy crisis poses substantial new risks to the region.

In the rest of the news, there is still intense discussion in Europe on energy prices. On the oil market, prices rebounded slightly after continuing to slide yesterday.

The big rebound recorded in the United States yesterday boosted equities in Japan (+2%) and Australia (+1.6%). Chinese squares, on the other hand, always seem to have a life of their own that prevents them from behaving like the others. They are falling this morning, as China’s zero covid policy continues to lead to closures / reopenings of more or less densely populated areas. What to add to the current fears on the growth of the country, reinforced yesterday by mediocre foreign trade figures for the month of August. In Europe, the leading indicators point to a positive start to the session, since the previous day’s gains were quite far from those of Wall Street. The CAC40 gained 0.4% to 6134 points at the opening.

Economic highlights of the day

The ECB will deliver its monetary policy decision today at 2:15 p.m., which will be followed by the conference presenting the decision at 2:45 p.m. In the United States, weekly jobless claims (2:30 p.m.) will precede a speech by Jerome Powell (Fed) shortly after 3:00 p.m. The whole macro diary here. This morning, Japan announced that its Q2 GDP is finally a little more dynamic than expected.

The euro rose to 0.999 USD. The ounce of gold also rebounded to 1714 USD. Oil is trying to stabilize, with North Sea Brent at $88.65 a barrel and US WTI light crude at $82.65. The performance of the american debt at 10 years fell again to 3.23%. Bitcoin is rallying around $19,300.

The main changes in recommendations

  • A2A: Morgan Stanley starts online weighted tracking targeting EUR 1.35.
  • Asos: Jefferies goes from buy to hold, aiming for 775 GBp.
  • Atos: Goldman Sachs goes from neutral to sell, targeting EUR 8.
  • Aveva: HSBC goes from buying to keeping, aiming for 3090 GBp.
  • CD Projekt: Morgan Stanley goes from underweight to weighted online by targeting 87 PLN.
  • Compagnie Financière Richemont: Bernstein moves from outperformance to market performance.
  • Epiroc: HSBC moves from hold to buy targeting 200 SEK.
  • GSK: Jefferies switches from buying to holding, aiming for 1475 GBp.
  • ITV: Morgan Stanley moves from online weight to underweight by targeting 55 GBp.
  • Krones: Berenberg goes from selling to keeping, aiming for 90 EUR.
  • LVMH: Jefferies is still buying with a price target raised from 700 to 740 EUR.
  • Novartis: Morgan Stanley remains weighted in line with a reduced price target of 94 to 88 CHF.
  • Ocado: Barclays goes from underweight to weighted online by targeting 775 GBp.
  • Polypeptide: Morgan Stanley goes from overweight to weighted online by targeting 50 CHF.
  • ProSiebenSat: Morgan Stanley moves from online weight to underweight by targeting EUR 7.
  • Publicis: Redburn resumes follow-up on purchase.
  • Roche: Morgan Stanley remains weighted in line with a reduced price target of 370 to 350 CHF. Jefferies goes from hold to buy targeting 375 CHF.
  • Siegfried: RBC goes from outperformance to sector performance by targeting CHF 860.
  • SLM Solutions: Kepler Cheuvreux goes from buying to keeping, aiming for EUR 20.
  • Sogeclair: GreenSome Finance remains long with a target reduced from 28.50 to 26.60 EUR.
  • TFF Group: Kepler Cheuvreux remains long with a target raised from 37 to 42 EUR.
  • Thales: Societe Generale goes from buying to keeping, aiming for 137 EUR.
  • Valneva: Portzamparc goes from holding to buying, targeting EUR 11.
  • Zalando: Berenberg remains to be kept with a target reduced from 36 to 26 EUR.
  • Zurich Insurance: Barclays remains overweight with a target raised from 500 to 525 CHF.

In France

Important (and less important) announcements

  • Saint-Gobain wants to separate from the British building materials retailer Jewson.
  • Credit Agricole will buy 4.8% of the capital of Credit Agricole Egypt.
  • Thales will supply Emirates with its new in-flight entertainment system.
  • Rémy Cointreau is launching a share buyback involving a maximum of 1.9% of its capital.
  • Euronext saw lower spot market volumes and capital raisings in August.
  • TF1 assigns Canal + (Vivendi) in summary proceedings to the commercial court after the broadcast was cut.
  • Voltalia signs two solar projects in the United Kingdom.
  • Getlink has released its August traffic figures.
  • Valneva and VBI Vaccines sign a partnership for the marketing and distribution of the PreHevbri vaccine in Europe.
  • Gaztransport & Technigaz announces the approval of Ascenz’ electronic fuel monitoring system by Exxon Mobil.
  • Neoen issued €300 million in “green” 2027 OCEANE bonds.
  • Nanobiotix and lianbio announce the recruitment of the first patient in Asia for the phase III nanoray-312 trial, evaluating NBTXR3 in head and neck cancers.
  • DBV Technologies is initiating a Phase III (SPEED) study of the modified Viaskin Peanut patch in peanut allergic children aged 4-7 years.
  • Buy-Rent reversed its shares at a rate of 10,000 to 1.
  • Financial Da Vinci takes 7.24% of Cast at 7.55 EUR per share.
  • Lhyfe concludes an agreement with Plug for the delivery of PEM electrolysers.
  • Don’t Nod enriches its catalog with a new co-production in the action-RPG segment.
  • CIOA Group reports a large amount of contracts signed with China on its platform.
  • Altamir, SES-Imagotag, Jacquet Metals, Somfy, Boiron, Samse, Neurones, Sogeclair, Locasystem, Spineway, Invibes, Damartex, MyHotelmatch and Transgene have published their accounts.

In the world

Important (and less important) announcements

  • Apple unveils a new iPhone and an extreme sports watch. The terminals will allow emergency messages via an agreement with satellite operator GlobalStar.
  • Cineworld is placed under the protection of bankruptcy law in the United States with $1.9 billion in liabilities.
  • Mitsui and Shell will explore the feasibility of carbon capture in Asia-Pacific.
  • Stora Enso buys a Dutch packaging company.
  • Thoma Bravo will not be bidding for Darktrace.
  • Skanska obtains a $422 million contract for the Portland International Airport expansion project in the United States.
  • Tod’s sales grew 17% in the first half of 2022.
  • Ypsomed partners with Berlin-based therapy app developer Sidekick.
  • Main publications of the day: Taiwan Semiconductor, Mediatek, ZScaler, ICA Gruppen, Melrose Industries, Helvetia, Rubis, SES-Imagotag, Vistry… The whole agenda here.

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