Grain and oilseed prices weaken

Grain and oilseed prices weaken


The bullish madness of agricultural raw materials, the prices of which broke records with the war in Ukraine, seems to be weakening: the prices of wheat, soybeans and rapeseed have marked a drop in recent days, in particular because Russian wheat exports appear to be overcrowded.

Wheat, maize and rapeseed prices are down, linked to a possibly bloated Russian harvest.Wheat, maize and rapeseed prices are down, linked to a possibly bloated Russian harvest. (© Adobe Stock)

Lhe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has again raised Russian production, already described as exceptional, in its monthly report published on Friday. She should climb to 88 million tons of wheat for this campaign, with 42 million tonnes destined for export.

“A net wheat importer in 2000, Russia is now the leading exporting country,” comments Arthur Portier, consultant at Agritel. Provided, the firm recalls, that Russia has the logistical capacities to export.

Russian floating taxes, which apply to products and change every week, also tend to put off importers.

European exports manage to meet the strong global appetite and maintain a sustained pace, with 3.6 million tonnes exported since early JulyFrance in the lead with 1.5 million tonnes exported.

On Euronext, shortly before 3:00 p.m. GMT, soft wheat was selling at 323.25 euros per tonne for delivery in September, against 340.50 at the close last Wednesday.

Despite the symbolic importance of the newly opened maritime corridors in the Black Sea, opened thanks to the agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine on July 22, the resumption of traffic in the Black Sea “has not almost no impact on the market “, Estimates Arlan Suderman, of the StoneX brokerage platform, which points to “insufficient volumes”.

According to the UN, between 1er and on August 15, 21 bulk carriers left the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny, with 563,317 tons of agricultural raw materials on board, the majority of which was corn.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture also reports that 2.65 million tonnes have been exported since June 1 – all means of transport combined – or 46% less than last year, according to the UkrAgroConsult site.

Decline in soybeans and rapeseed

The USDA was more optimistic than expected on soybeans, raising forecast production by 1.4 million tonnes thanks to the United States and China.

Added to milder weather forecasts in the Midwest, prices for all commodities dropped at the end of the week in Chicago, notes Michael Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting, after three weeks of bullish momentum.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange on Wednesday, shortly before opening, soybeans were trading at $14.6825 for September delivery. SRW wheat was trading at $7.7350 a bushel and corn at $6.1275.

In the wake of soy, oil and palm, rapeseed also marked a sharp decline on Euronext earlier this week. Wednesday around 3:00 p.m. GMT, it sold at 619.50 euros per tonne for the November deadline, against 659 euros at the close a week ago.

Even if a feeling of normalization seems to be returning timidly, “elements from the macro-economic or external to agricultural markets”, like the slowdown in China and the global economy, are putting raw materials under pressure, underlines Arlan Suderman.

The demand for soybeans, for example, could decline because of China, the world’s largest importer and the United States’ largest customer.

Corn continues to deteriorate

Growing conditions continue to deteriorate in Europe and the United Statesdue to the lack of water and the high temperatures, with no possibility of improvement at the end of the season despite the return of the rains.

The USDA lowered the American production estimate by almost 4 million tonnes, due to the drought in the “Corn Belt” in particular, and by 8 million that of the European Union.

Despite these forecasts, the price fell on Wednesday around 3:00 p.m. GMT to 314.25 euros per tonne against 330.50 euros at the close last Wednesday.

These production cuts promise to boost European demand for maize, mainly for animal feed. Last week, European imports have already reached 3.6 million tonnes since the beginning of July, double last year over this period.

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